‘Drop-dead’ date on debt ceiling could extend to August, Evercore ISI says
The U.S.likely will be able to avoid a debt default until as late as mid-August though Treasury officials likely will try to instill a greater sense of urgency to Congress, according to Evercore ISI economist Stan Shipley.
“We estimate the ‘drop dead’ date for the debt ceiling is between late July and mid-August, depending on outlays,” Shipley said in a client note Tuesday.
Officials are currently using so-called extraordinary measures to continue paying bills while Congress debates the debt ceiling extension.Markets currently are pricing in a low but rising chance that the government could default on its obligations, an event that almost certainly would lower the U.S.credit rating and create tumult through financial markets.
Shipley said he expects that Treasury officials are watching the situation closely and could inject a more urgent air into the debate if it appears that the current measures could expire in June.
“For this reason, we suspect that when Treasury provides an update on timing (likely this week), they will continue emphasizing that they are confident in avoiding a breach through early June, but unable to project a later date with the requisite degree of confidence,” he wrote.“This may keep the DC debate focused on a June timeline, despite the likelihood that we can survive deeper into the summer.”
—Jeff Cox
Morgan Stanley says AI tools will drive tech leaders towards efficiency, slower hiring
With the rise of artificial intelligence tools, Morgan Stanley expects tech companies to slow hiring and implement more disciplined budgeting going forward as efficiency becomes a larger focus.
In a note sent to clients on Monday, equity analyst Brian Nowak named Facebook-parent
Meta, Amazon as tech companies that have room to reduce their headcount and increase their productivity.
“Forward hiring levels should arguably be smaller and more targeted due to rapidly-emerging AI productivity drivers,” Nowak wrote in the note.“This speaks to the opportunity for tech leaders to be early adopters of new AI innovation…and the potential to create a structurally more efficient workforce.”
The rapid growth of AI-assisted coding tools is making engineers more productive, Nowak said, adding that
Microsoft developers using GitHub Copilot are already increasing their productivity by about 55%.
AI-based sales tools are also making sales teams more efficient and internal tasks are likely to become more automated, Nowak said.
This week is a busy one for Big Tech, with Google-parent
Alphabet and Microsoft reporting first quarter earnings after the bell on Tuesday, Meta on Wednesday and Amazon on Thursday.
— Pia Singh
First Republic stock on pace for its fifth-biggest volume day on record
Despite multiple trading halts,
First Republic has traded more than 140 million shares so far and is on pace for its fifth biggest-volume day on record.
Shares plunged more than 43% Tuesday as investors became concerns on the bank’s stability after it lost approximately 40% of its deposits in the previous quarter.
First Republic’s stock is close to doubling its 30-day average of nearly 73 million shares and is the most-active stock on the New York Stock Exchange as of Tuesday afternoon.
First Republic Bank
— Hakyung Kim, Nicholas Wells
Tesla’s volume goals for the Model 3 and Model Y were unrealistic, analyst says
Tesla’s volume goals for both the Model Y and Model 3 were “unrealistically aggressive,” according to Alliance Bernstein.
AB analyst Toni Sacconaghi said in a Tuesday note that Tesla’s target of three to four million cars per year for the Model 3 and Y would essentially amount to roughly 50% of the global market share for luxury cars.
Both vehicles fit into that category.
As a result, the company had no choice but to cut prices extensively in order to try to reach volume goals.
“Despite price reductions, Tesla still appears to be struggling to generate sufficient demand to meet its targets, and the impact from price cuts to date has been short-lived,” Sacconaghi said.
— Brian Evans
Stocks remain down entering final hour of trading
The three major indexes stayed in the red as investors entered the final hour of trading.
The
Dow was 326 points, or 1%, lower.The S&P 500 dropped 1.4%, while the Nasdaq Composite slid1.7%.
— Alex Harring
General Motors stock ‘goes nowhere’ despite management heading in the right direction, Josh Brown says
Despite executive leadership at
General Motors seemingly making the right moves, it isn’t enough to keep wealth advisor Josh Brown interested.
“This stock is like watching paint dry,” Brown said Tuesday on CNBC’s “
Halftime Report.” “Basically it does nothing, goes nowhere, [and] it’s only a 1% dividend yield so not enough to keep me interested.”
Brown added that from a business standpoint, the company has made the right moves from both its entry and execution of its electric vehicle sector.
But “it just doesn’t matter” and “nobody cares,” he said.
GM reported quarterly results earlier on Tuesday, beating on both adjusted earnings and revenue.Read the full breakdown
here.
— Brian Evans
These companies could take a hit from Bed, Bath & Beyond’s bankruptcy
Despite
the well-telegraphed troubles at Bed, Bath & Beyond, some suppliers could take a hit from the home goods retailer’s bankruptcy, DA Davidson’s Linda Bolton Weiser said.She anticipates the company will be liquidated, “with no recovery for unsecured creditors.”
Bed, Bath’s top suppliers traditionally included
Mattel, 1-800-Flowers, Lifetime Brands and Helen of Troy, but these companies were paring back shipments to the struggling retailer.
Still, 1-800-Flower’s PMall ranks second on the list of top 30 creditors, with $11.1 million owed to it; Tempur Sealy ranks 12th, with $3.7 million exposed; while Lifetime is 15th on the list, with $3.3 million on the line, Bolton Weiser wrote in research note.
According to the analyst, Lifetime had only been selling private-label goods to Bed, Bath and had some reserves accrued for accounts receivable as of the fourth quarter.Last year, sales to Bed Bath & Beyond were less than 1% of Lifetime’s total sales.
On the flip side, Bolton Weiser expects
Walmart, Target and TJX’s Home Goods to benefit from picking up market share from former Bed, Bath customers.
—Christina Cheddar Berk
Stocks making the biggest moves during Tuesday’s trading session
Check out the companies making headlines in midday trading.
First Republic Bank — Shares of the regional bank plummeted as much as 44% after it said Monday that deposits fell by 40% to $104.5 billion during the first quarter, which came below Wall Street’s expectations.
The San Francisco-based bank said that its deposit flows have since stabilized.
Shares have tumbled about 90% year to date.
United Parcel Service — Shares of the shipping giant fell 9.3%.The company fell short of analysts’ expectations on the top and bottom lines, according to Refinitiv.Fiserv — The global payments processor’s shares jumped 3.6%.Fiserv’s first-quarter earnings per share and revenue topped analysts’ estimates, according to FactSet.The company also raised its full-year outlook and said it expects organic revenue growth between 8% to 9%.
Centene — The health-care operator’s shares gained 3% after Centene reported a beat on its adjusted earnings and revenue for the first quarter.The company’s full-year guidance for 2023 also came above expectations.To be sure, Centene’s full-year outlook for 2024 is below analysts’ estimates, according to FactSet.
The full list can be found
here.
— Hakyung Kim
24 Dow stocks trade down
Twenty-four of the 30 members of the
Dow were down in Tuesday’s session, helping to push the index around 300 points into the red.
Merck, Verizon, IBM, Amgen, Johnson & Johnson and UnitedHealth were the six members of the blue-chip trading above the flatline.The other 24 were below their flatlines, led down by
Dow, Inc.‘s 4.6% slide.
The Dow
— Alex Harring
First Republic sell-off deepens, stock falls below $9 per share
Shares of
First Republic continue to fall in afternoon trading.
They were last down 44% and trading under $9 per share before trading was halted for volatility.
The bank said in its earnings release on Monday that it is considering strategic moves to help restructure its balance sheet.CNBC’s David Faber reported earlier Tuesday that the next several days were key for the bank as it tries to reconcile a mismatch between its deposits and assets.
First Republic
— Jesse Pound
Stephens downgrades Cal-Maine Foods on weak egg outlook
Shares of egg production company
Cal-Maine Foods tumbled almost 4% after Stephens stepped to the sidelines on shares.The firm cited a weak pricing backdrop in the eggs and chicken sector.
Analyst Ben Bienvenu downgraded the stock to equal weight from overweight.He also lowered his price target to $60 from $67, which implies 15% upside from where shares closed on Monday.
“When considering what’s currently playing out for eggs, we think it is best for us [to] move to the sidelines on Cal-Maine as we think risk/reward is now more balanced,” said Bienvenu.
“Egg prices have moved down rapidly since the end of the rally we saw in prices a month ago, and as we move into a seasonal demand lull, deferred flock rotations are likely to be just around the corner.While this could help stabilize prices in the coming weeks, we think it is too little too late relative to current expectations from investors in the table egg space,” the analyst added.
Cal-Maine stock
— Hakyung Kim
Utility and consumer staple stocks avoid S&P 500’s tumble
Utility and consumer staple stocks were able to buck the
S&P 500‘s slide on Tuesday.
Of the index’s 11 sectors, the two were the only ones trading in the green with advances of around 0.3%.The other nine sectors traded in the red, pulling the broad index down 0.9%.
Energy was the worst performer of the 11 sectors with a loss of 1.8%.
— Alex Harring
UPS stock is on track for worst day since October 2020
Hasbro will climb further on growth of Magic: The Gathering, Jefferies says
The growth of the popular card game Magic: The Gathering could help stoke growth at
Hasbro, according to Jefferies.
Jefferies analyst Andrew Uerkwitz lauded Wizards of the Coast, the company that oversees MTG and subsidiary of Hasbro, for expanding the game’s roster of products for extending into a diverse set of verticals in a Tuesday note.
“Expanding MTG’s media presence with TV, video games, and social media content creators are ways we expect WOTC to increase touch-points with both new and returning consumer,” Uerkwitz said.
Read the full story
— Brian Evans
First Republic extends losses, now down more than 90% for the year
Shares of
First Republic extended their losses to more than 27% on Tuesday morning as investors reacted to a larger-than-expected decline in deposits at the troubled regional bank.
The stock is now down more than 90% year to date.
First Republic’s year-to-date losses crossed 90% on Tuesday.
The stock also set a new intraday low for the year at $11.20 per share.The previous low water mark was $11.52 per share on March 20, according to FactSet.
— Jesse Pound
Investing legend Peter Lynch regrets not buying into Apple
Legendary investor Peter Lynch said Tuesday that he wished he hadn’t missed out on the explosive growth in Apple.
“Apple was not that hard to understand.
I mean, how dumb was I?” Lynch, vice chairman of Fidelity Management & Research, said on CNBC’s “
Squawk Box.” Apple has a “nice balance sheet.I should have done some work on Apple … it’s not a complicated company.”
Lynch made his name for managing Fidelity’s Magellan Fund from 1977 to 1990.Under his 13-year management, the fund earned an annualized return of 29.2%, consistently more than doubling the S&P 500′s performance.
— Yun Li
Home sales show surprise gain; consumer confidence dips
New home sales unexpectedly increased in March despite persistently high mortgage rates.
With rates above 7% for a 30-year mortgage, sales still totaled 683,000, an increase of 9.6%, according to seasonally adjusted data Tuesday from the Commerce Department .
Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for sales of 634,000, which would have equated to a decline of nearly 1% from the February total.
The number of homes for sale totaled 432,000, equating to about 7.6 months worth of supply.
Despite the rise in home sales, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell to 101.3 for April, down from 104 in March, which also was the expected level for April.
—Jeff Cox
Cyber ETF on pace for worst day since January
The
Global X Cybersecurity ETF (BUG) lost 3.4%, putting the fund on pace for its worse day since January.
It last performed worse on Jan.
5, when the ETF dropped 4.8%.
Tenable led the index down with a drop of more than 21% followings its earnings report.The stock is on pace for its worse day ever — all the way back to its initial public offering on July 26, 2018.Qualys trailed with a nearly 7% slide, followed by CyberArk Software, Zscaler and Telos with drops of more than 5%.
The ETF
— Alex Harring, Gina Francolla
Stocks open lower
Stocks opened lower Tuesday.
The
Dow was down 0.1% shortly after open.The S&P 500 slid 0.4%, while the Nasdaq Composite shed 0.6%.
— Alex Harring
Majority of companies reporting Tuesday morning beat expectations for EPS, sales, data shows
A majority of companies beat expectations for per-share earnings and sales when looking separately at the two financial markers, according to Bespoke Investment Group.
Of the approximately 60 companies that reported Tuesday morning, 77% beat Wall Street expectations for earnings per share,
data from Bespoke shows.Meanwhile, 73% of the reporting companies beat expectations for sales, the firm reported.
To be sure, some market participants anticipated a strong showing relative to consensus estimates given the fact that Wall Street largely pulled back expectations heading into the quarter.
— Alex Harring
Investors will watch to see if Alphabet can break earnings miss streak
Alphabet is slated to report its quarterly earnings after the bell.Investors will be watching to see if the Google parent can end its streak of missed earnings per share expectations.
The company has been on an earnings cold streak, missing Wall Street estimates for earnings per share the last four quarters, according to Bespoke Investment Group.
In three of those last for quarters, the stock has ended the following trading day significantly lower.
Here’s how the stock closed the following trading day after the four most-recent earnings reports:
– Fourth quarter of 2022: down 3.3%
– Third quarter of 2022: down 9.6%
– Second quarter of 2022: up 7.7%
– First quarter of 2022: down 3.8%
Alphabet shares were trading down about 0.5% in the premarket.
— Alex Harring
Philadelphia Fed services gauge tumbles deeper into negative territory
Services activity in the Philadelphia region slumped sharply in April as new orders declined further even as prices remained stubbornly high.
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s nonmanufacturing index tumbled to -16.2 for the month, after posting a -0.1 in March, the most negative change since December 2020.The index measures the percentage of companies reporting expansion against contraction, so any negative reading represents a pullback.
While new orders slumped 8.5 points to -23.9 and sales went from being positive at 10.3 to -2.9, there was some good news on the hiring front.The full-time employees index jumped to 11.5 from 3.2.However, inflation-related measures remained elevated, with prices paid just edging lower to 35.7, prices received moved up slightly to 20.7 and wages and benefit costs jumped nearly 15 percentage points to 39.7.
The Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing index also was deeply negative at -31.3, according to a release Monday.
—Jeff Cox
Stocks making the biggest premarket moves
Check out the companies making headlines before the bell on Tuesday:
–
3M— The industrial stock added 1.3% before the opening bell.3M reported $1.97 in earnings per share, higher than analysts expectations of $1.58 from FactSet.The Minnesota-based company announced it would cut about 6,000 positions globally in efforts to focus on high-growth markets such as automotive electrification and home improvement, while prioritizing emerging growth areas such as climate technology and semiconductors.
JetBlue— The stock popped more than 2.3% in the premarket after the airline forecasted a “solidly profitable” second quarterdue to strong travel demand.For the first quarter, JetBlue posted a 34 cents loss, less than the 39 cents expected, per Refinitiv.
Packaging Corp of America— Shares fell 6.8% after the company reported an adjusted profit per share of $2.20, which came in below a StreetAccount forecast of $2.27 per share.The company’s second-quarter guidance also missed expectations.
Read
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/25/stocks-making-the-biggest-moves-premarket-nvs-jblu-mmm.html to see which other companies are making moves before the open.
— Pia Singh
First Republic Bank needs a strategic pivot to survive, analyst says
http://www.cnbc.com/quotes/FRC/ desperately needs to pivot strategically in order for the institution to survive, according to Janney analyst Timothy Coffey.
“We believe FRC needs to drop the growth-at-all-cost business model that defined the company and focus on profitability, which could be an epic undertaking considering it has not reported an [return on assets] greater than 1% since 4Q16,” Coffey said.The firm downgraded shares of First Republic in a Tuesday note.
On Monday, the regional bank said deposits declined 40% in the first quarter,
but have since stabilized.The stock has fallen more than 20% in after-hour trading.
CNBC Pro subscribers can read more about the downgrade
— Brian Evans
PepsiCo shares rise after strong earnings, upbeat outlook
PepsiCo climbed nearly 2% in premarket trading after the beverage and snacks giant posted earnings and revenue that topped Wall Street’s expectations.
The company posted $1.50 in adjusted earnings per share, above the $1.39 expected by analysts polled by Refinitiv.Revenue came in at $17.85 billion, higher than the $17.22 billion anticipated.
PepsiCo also raised its outlook on the full year.
— Yun Li, Stefan Sykes
JetBlue rises on profit forecast, earnings beat
Shares of
JetBlue added about 1.5% in the premarket after the airline reported a smaller earnings loss than expected and forecasted a “solidly profitable” second quarter.
JetBlue estimated earnings per share of 35 cents to 45 cents for the current quarter thanks to strong travel demand.
For the first quarter, the airline had a loss per share of 34 cents, versus the 38 cents expected, per Refinitiv.
Revenue came in at $2.33 billion compared to the $2.32 billion expected.
JetBlue year-to-date performance
— Michelle Fox, Leslie Josephs
General Motors rises on strong earnings, guidance
General Motors shares advanced nearly 3% in premarket trading on the back of earnings that beat estimates and strong guidance for full-year performance.
The auto maker reported $2.21 in adjusted earnings per share and $39.99 billion in revenue.Analysts polled by Refinitiv expected the company to perform worse, with consensus estimates of $1.73 in earnings per share on $38.96 billion in revenue.
On top of those beats, the company also raised its guidance for full-year earnings per share and revenue.GM now expects earnings for the full year to come in between $11 billion and $13 billion, which translates to between $6.35 and $7.35 per share.The company previously guided for between $10.5 billion and $12.5 billion, or $6 and $7 per share.
— Alex Harring, Michael Wayland
McDonald’s pops as restaurant chain beats Wall Street expectations
Fast food chain
McDonald’s rose nearly 1% in extended trading after the company reported first-quarter earnings that came in ahead of analysts’ expectations.
The company reported $2.63 in adjusted earnings per share, higher than the $2.33 consensus estimate of analysts polled by Refinitiv.
Revenue came in at $5.9 billion, which is higher than the $5.59 billion anticipated.
McDonald’s also said U.S.traffic rose for the third quarter in a row, continuing to bring in customers despite rising menu prices.
— Alex Harring, Amelia Lucas
UPS falls on disappointing earnings
UPS shares fell more than 5% after the shipping giant reported quarterly results that missed analyst expectations.
The company earned an adjusted $2.20 per share on revenue of $22.93 billion.Analysts expected earnings of $2.21 per share on revenue of $23.01 billion, according to Refinitiv.
“Deceleration in U.S.retail sales resulted in lower volume than we anticipated, and we faced ongoing demand weakness in Asia,” CEO Carol Tome said in a statement.
“Given current macro conditions, we expect volume to remain under pressure.”
— Fred Imbert
Results from this little-known packaging company are concerning, Vital Knowledge says
While investors may be fretting over First Republic’s first-quarter numbers, Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge thinks there’s one report that’s more worrisome.
“More concerning from a macro perspective was the PKG (Packaging Corp of America), a firm with its finger on the pulse of underlying consumer demand,” he said.
PKG reported an adjusted profit per share of $2.20 that missed a StreetAccount forecast of $2.27 per share.The company’s second-quarter guidance was also below expectations.
Shares of the packaging company fell more than 5% in the premarket.
— Fred Imbert, Michael Bloom
Europe stocks open lower
European stock markets were lower shortly after opening on Tuesday, with the benchmark
Stoxx 600 index down 0.4%.
France’s
CAC 40 fell 0.7%, the U.K.’s FTSE 100 was down 0.4% while Germany’s DAX was narrowly lower.
Banks dropped by 1.66%, as investors digested earnings reports on both sides of the Atlantic, while mining stocks fell 1.4%.
Stoxx 600 index.
— Jenni Reid
Recession may be ‘all but certain’ as small businesses feel pressure, says LPL Financial
LPL Financial says data from small business indicates a “short and shallow recession” in the later half of 2023.
“Small businesses are often considered the backbone of the economy because of the amount of economic activity generated by the sector, and it looks like a backache has emerged,” the firm’s chief economist Jeffrey Roach and chief equity strategist Jeffrey Buchbinder wrote in a Monday note.
Roach and Buchbinder said that new survey data from the National Federation of Independent Businesses shows that hiring intentions among small businesses dropped in March, implying a weak upcoming jobs report.
They added that tighter lending conditions have also put pressure on small businesses.
“The percent of small businesses reporting tighter credit is the highest since 2012, as lending institutions tighten up under the uncertainty of the macro landscape and following mid-March banking turmoil,” said Roach and Buchbinder.
“If small businesses are an accurate barometer, recession risks are rising and the labor market will likely cool in the coming months.”
— Hakyung Kim
Stocks making the biggest moves in extended trading
http://www.cnbc.com/quotes/FRC/ — Shares of the San Francisco-based regional bank tumbled 7.8% postmarket after rising more than 12% during Monday’s main trading session.Although the bank’s earnings per share in the first quarter topped analysts’ estimates, its deposit flight was worse than what analysts had estimated, plunging 41% to $104.5 billion.Analysts had expected the quarter-end deposits to total approximately $145 billion, according to the consensus estimate from FactSet’s StreetAccount.Whirlpool — The home appliance maker rose 3% after its first quarter earnings and revenue beat analysts’ estimates.Whirlpool posted per-share earnings of $2.66 and revenue of $4.65 billion.Analysts had estimated $2.28 in earnings per share and revenue of $4.5 billion, according to Refinitiv data.
The full list can be found
— Hakyung Kim
Stock futures open flat Monday night
U.S.stock futures were flat Monday evening.
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures dipped by 5 points, or 0.01%.
S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures inched down 0.08% and 0.1%, respectively.
— Hakyung Kim.
