It is the question on the lips of politicians, diplomats and people on every continent: What will be the key issues and priorities for President Donald Trump’s new administration on the international stage?Yet, it is almost impossible to answer with any clarity because Trump is not a politician who has carefully honed and telegraphed an international manifesto for his foreign policy.He has, and does conduct foreign policy on instinct, whim and feeling which is what makes him such an uncanny and mercurial adversary and ally.That is the way he wants it – and it works.There are some clear indicators though.The “first stage” of the Gaza ceasefire and exchange of Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners would not have been possible were it not for Trump’s warning that there would be “all hell to pay” if the deal was not in place by the time he took office.It says much for his muscular shoot-from-the-hip foreign policy that both Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s hard-right coalition government and what is left of the Hamas leadership found it hard to resist his warnings.But there are dangers ahead for Trump in his Israel-Gaza policy.It seems that once the initial stage one ceasefire and exchange of hostages and prisoners is complete – there is nothing to guarantee that the war will not continue.For one thing, the images of hundreds of Hamas fighters present as the three young Israeli women were released to the Red Cross on Sunday will put huge pressure on the Israeli government which vowed to destroy and dismantle all vestige of Hamas.That clearly has not happened and Hamas still calls the shots in Gaza.What then for Trump’s policy if the war resumes?He also promised to end the war in Ukraine within a day.That was trademark hyperbole by Trump but finding a way out of the Ukraine war will be much more difficult.
For one thing, there are deep divisions within his administration about supporting Ukraine and resisting Russia.There are senior administration officials and Trump loyalists who want to continue backing Kyiv militarily and see Russian President Vladimir Putin as an aggressor who must be defeated.There are those who are equally as close to Trump who believe the opposite, that America cannot and should not continue to spend billions of dollars on a war that they see as being locked in a stalemate.They think the new administration should use its huge influence to pressure Ukraine to effectively sue for peace on terms which guarantee that Russia continues to possess Ukrainian territory.Another complicating factor in this is that the UK and the major European powers are vehemently committed to continue to support Ukraine in every way possible thus setting up a sharp and clear division between the US and its key allies.Subscribe free to our weekly newsletter for exclusive and original coverage from ITV News.Direct to your inbox every Friday morning.
The one issue that will dominate Trump’s global agenda – whether in trade, technology, military competition, access to the most important resources for the energy transition and global data and information and scientific innovation is China.It was very telling that incoming Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Congress during his confirmation hearing that if the United States did not arrest and reverse China’s challenge to US dominance and hegemony in all fields, then within ten years the United States would be dependent on China for the most critical technologies and resources.The fight over the banning of TikTok is but a small indicator of the wider struggle with China’s penetration of the supply chains that power almost every household in America.If I were to stick my neck out and make one prediction it would be that we should keep our eye on how Trump will try to rein in China’s challenge.The US has never faced a more advanced adversary than China – militarily, technologically, economically and strategically.How can you Make America Great Again without answering this challenge?The inauguration will be covered live on ITV1 and ITVX from 4pm with Tom Bradby presenting live from Washington DC.Tom will be joined by Robert Moore and former Trump staffer Heather Nauert, as well as a team of correspondents in Washington DC and beyond as they bring you analysis around the ceremony.Want an expert briefing on US politics? Listen to our latest podcast Talking Politics USA.