Australia – China has become more aggressive in the South China Sea, the East China Sea, the South Pacific and beyond with its accelerating military buildup and acquisition of larger fleets of ships and submarines, according to two Australian government officials, who warned that Beijing would highly likely pursue more land reclamations in disputed areas.
Like-minded states should strengthen security partnerships to deter aggressive actions and ensure a free, open and rules-based order in the region, said the two senior Australian officials, who spoke on background.All countries “must ensure that militaries act in a safer, professional manner because that’s what keeps us all safe,” they said.
“Over the last decade, we’ve seen a rapid expansion in the People’s Liberation Army’s capabilities and also the deployment of those capabilities not just across China’s maritime borders into the South China Sea but now also beyond and even globally, by and large, because the PLA’s got bigger,” one of the two officials said, referring to China’s huge military.
The Australian officials spoke to a group of journalists from the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam, including from GMA News Online, who were invited by the Australian government for a weeklong maritime reporting tour.
Those Southeast Asian countries have had had territorial tiffs with China in and around the South China Sea.Brunei and Taiwan have also been involved in the longstanding territorial disputes.
“China’s behavior, as a whole, is becoming more assertive and as China’s military capability power has grown, it’s become more confident in how it uses that military capability in the region,” the Australian officials said.
China’s muscle-flexing near Australia New Zealand
While there has been wide focus on China’s increasing assertiveness in the South China Sea, particularly against the Philippine coast guard, fisheries and naval forces, Beijing has also flexed its military muscle nearer Australia and New Zealand, Japan and South Korea, they said.
“It doesn’t get reported on very much, but both Korea and Japan had separate disagreements going with China at the moment where China has started putting much floating structures in the Yellow Sea between Korea and China, and then also the East China Sea between Japan and China,” one of the two officials said.“That would be very concerning if China started doing a similar thing in the South China Sea.”
“While we see that the People’s Liberation Army are operating in the South China Sea, it is also occurring simply into the Southwest Pacific.We increasingly see PLA assets operating and also out into the Indian Ocean,” they said.
In February, the PLA deployed a naval task group called Task Group One, which “conducted a full circle around the Australian continent and also conducted some live-fire activities in the oceans between Australia and New Zealand.This is a not insignificant change to the sort of kind of PLA behavior that we’re seeing across the region,” they said.
From reaction to anticipation
Dr.Fitriani, senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, said Australia and like-minded partners need to move from reaction to anticipation.
“What’s needed now is a form of strategic foresight and pre-emptive resilience,” Fitriani said.
“In short, the answer isn’t only ‘more patrols’ by partners but smarter integration of security, technology and deterrence policy.”
Unified and pointed, specific deterrence efforts such as multilateral maritime patrols are key to addressing China’s aggressive actions, said Jane Hardy, senior fellow at the University of Sydney’s US Studies Centre.
“Persistent and consistent military presence, drills which demonstrate effective interoperability and diplomatic advocacy, multilateral or bilateral, will be turbo-charged as other nations join in,” Hardy said.
More land reclamations in the South China Sea
Asked if China would pursue more land reclamations in the South China Sea, one of the Australian government officials said: “It’s very possible.”
“The behavior that we’re seeing from China, they continue to push the envelope everywhere along their maritime border, including in the South China Sea,” the official said.
He added that Beijing would likely proceed with its current assertive actions to cement its territorial claims than impose an Air Defense Identification Zone, or ADIZ, as some Asian countries have feared, because such a move could stir more unnecessary disagreements.
“They can just keep doing the things they want which is certifying their control over increasingly excessive territorial claims,” the official said.
“That’s what’s fueling regional insecurity.There’s this rapid change in the amount of military capability China’s acquiring and deploying,” the official said.
Australia, a trading nation dependent on the free passage of its trade and commerce at sea, is responding by increasing security engagements and diplomacy in Southeast Asia and continuing to build its defensive capability, the two officials said.
Australia, along with the US, Canada, Japan and New Zealand, have participated in several joint patrols and drills called Maritime Cooperative Activity with the Armed Forces of the Philippines in the South China Sea since last year.
China has opposed the MCAs, describing the Philippines as a “ troublemaker ,” which collaborates with outside countries to undertake actions that threaten regional stability.
Dr.Lupita Wijaya, research fellow at La Trobe University, said the Philippines’ strategy of deepening alliances, both through traditional partners like the US and new collaborations with Japan and Australia, “signal collective resolve and to some extent gives Manila more diplomatic leverage.”
“These alliances have made it harder for China to act unilaterally, because they signal that any coercive move will draw regional and international attention,” she said.
While this can deter aggression, Wijaya, however, warned of a risk of escalation if not coupled with crisis management mechanisms.
Australia’s submarine acquisition
Under the AUKUS program with the United States and United Kingdom, Australia has sought to acquire eight nuclear-powered attack submarines.
But China, they said, has moved to acquire dozens of nuclear-powered submarines.
“The Australian defense force has a long history of conducting maritime deployments into the South China Sea, the East China sea but also further across the globe … the Australian defence force has sent naval assets through the Taiwan Strait over the last number of years.We also make regular contributions … to support UN sanctions enforcements against North Korea,” one of the officials said.
It’s crucial that all countries uphold the UNCLOS, which provides all nations the right of freedom of navigation and overflight on the high seas and the airspace.
“That is in large part why Australia seeks to continue doing these activities, Australia alone can’t do that and that’s why we welcome all countries continuing to operate in accordance with the UNCLOS wherever the law permits,” the officials said.
China claims the South China Sea virtually in its entirety and has deployed much larger fleets of coast guard, navy and suspected maritime militia ships in the past years to assert that extensive claim against smaller claimant states.
An international arbitration decision in 2016 ruled to invalidate China’s territorial claims , but Beijing did not participate in the proceedings initiated by the Philippines and ignored the decision.
President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr.has nurtured closer military and defense ties with the US to strengthen the country’s external defense, including in the West Philippine Sea, that part of the South China Sea that is nearest to the Philippine archipelago.
Chinese Coast Guard, Navy and suspected maritime militia ships have used high-pressure water cannons and dangerous sea maneuvers against Philippine ships or vessels, which China has accused of encroaching into what it claims as its territorial waters.
Code of Conduct in the South China Sea
One of the Australian officials said in response to a question that China would continue with its aggression actions in the South China Sea and beyond.“It could be in the form of land reclamation, it could be in the positioning of other structures or installations at the features in the South China Sea,” the official said.
Asked about Australia’s view on the Code of Conduct that’s being negotiated by China and Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to prevent bigger conflicts in the South China Sea, one of the Australian officials said it could work both ways.
It could lead to a more stable condition for countries in the region.“However, we’d be concerned if we see new agreements, like the Code of Conduct, that would start to erode our rights under UNCLOS or according to international law,” the official said.
“I would also be concerned if I saw China beginning to use that as a delaying tactic, where it’s just prolonging these negotiations or other negotiations while it continues to take more assertive behavior in the region,” he said.
GMA News Online contacted the Chinese Embassy in Manila to get its comment but it has yet to issue a response as of posting time.—with a report from Mariel Celine Serquiña/KG GMA Integrated News.
